I fall between 1 and 2, closer to 1, I think.
I specifically asked Artie Martin (GM safety engineer, also on the national CPS board) about this at a CEU event in February. She said it's all a matter of what the vehicle manufacturer is willing to accept liability for. Part of her presentation described how they test to make sure the LATCH meets the requirements. Basically, they pull on the LATCH anchors until they withstand a certain force, then they stop testing. (So basically, they all test to the same limits.) She said they don't test past that required limit because if they tested until it broke, the testing weight and the broken LATCH anchors would become incredibly dangerous projectiles.
Personally, I think the reason that 40/48 lbs is the limit for most vehicles is because when LATCH was developed, there were very, very few car seats that even went past 40 lbs. I mean, if they tested to accomodate HWH seats today, do you think they would test up to 100 lbs? But who knows whether they'll have mainstream HWH seats that will accomodate 100 lbs in, say, 8 years.
I agree with those who said that if the LATCH limit was so, so critical, that manufacturers WOULD make the information more available to consumers, if only as a CYA effort. (Like, say, putting it in the manual, of all the crazy ideas.)
*DISCLAIMER: I don't intend to use my LATCH anchors past their stated limits, and I don't encourage anyone else to either.*