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Use buying services to get a price first. Try www.carsdirect.com, www.carwoo.com, www.truecar.com, try pricing services from your credit union, wholesale club or online at places like Amercian Express or Consumer Reports. Many of these use a third party company like zag to get quotes, but some use their own network.
Use one or more of the above and you'll get plenty of offers. You should be finding a deal similar to the best offers or negotiate one below the best offer. On the car I bought a couple months ago, I started by using a few of these, then emailed dealers that had a model in the trim level and color I wanted. I ended up driving a few hours to get what I wanted at a good price, but that usually isn't necessary.
On a model that has good supply and normal demand, you should generally get offers around "invoice" price and a good deal will be below invoice price, before any rebates. On a few low supply or high demand models, you may well pay close to sticker price or above. For example, models like the Prius and Volt command a premium in some areas.
If you have a trade-in, do the same with used car quotes from Edmunds.com, nada.com, kbb.com or best yet, get a guaranteed offer from a Carmax if you have one nearby. If you get taken on your trade-in, all the effort you spent getting a good price on the car you are buying was wasted.
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